2026 Oscars Predictions — Who's Actually Going to Win on March 15

This Year's Race Has Been Genuinely Entertaining

Alright, so the Oscars are this Sunday and I've been obsessively following this awards season since November. Usually by March I'm bored and just want it to be over. Not this year.

You've got Ryan Coogler's *Sinners* sitting on 16 nominations — the most any film has EVER received, topping *Titanic*, *La La Land*, and *All About Eve* which all held the record at 14. You've got Paul Thomas Anderson's *One Battle After Another* absolutely steamrolling every precursor award in existence. And then there's a Best Actor race that genuinely flipped upside down in the last few weeks.

I'm going to break down every major category, but I want to be upfront — I've been wrong before. I had *The Power of the Dog* winning Best Picture in 2022. So, you know. Appropriate salt.

Best Picture: Can Anything Stop One Battle After Another?

Photo by Samuel Ramos on Unsplash

Here's the thing about *One Battle After Another* — it's done something no film in history has done and then lost. It won the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, DGA, PGA, WGA, AND a SAG prize. That combo? Historically 100%. Zero losses. Ever.

But *Sinners* is the reason I can't fully relax. It grabbed the ACE Eddie, the SAG ensemble award, and the WGA — and THAT trifecta has never lost either. So we're literally watching two undefeated statistical records crash into each other. Something has to break.

My gut says PTA takes it. *One Battle After Another* is the kind of sprawling, politically charged epic that the Academy loves to crown — DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Benicio Del Toro, an adaptation of Thomas Pynchon's *Vineland* that's somehow actually watchable. Anderson pulling that off is a flex nobody else could manage.

But if you're rooting for *Sinners* — a vampire movie with 16 nominations, which is kind of insane when you say it out loud — I wouldn't tell you you're delusional. Variety's breakdown of the precursor math is worth reading if you want the full statistical picture.

**My prediction: One Battle After Another**

Best Actor Might Be the Spiciest Category This Year

A month ago, I would've told you Timothée Chalamet had this locked down. Then Michael B. Jordan won the SAG Award and the prediction markets went haywire. As of this week, it's basically a coin flip — Jordan at 50%, Chalamet at 44% on Polymarket.

The other nominees — DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, Wagner Moura — are all fantastic but realistically not winning. Sorry, Leo. You already got yours.

What makes this fun is the narrative angle. Jordan has never won an Oscar. His work in *Sinners* is apparently a career-best performance (and yeah, I still haven't seen it — it's literally on my watchlist for tonight, don't judge me). Chalamet has the "generational talent" momentum, and Hollywood loves anointing those guys.

I'm going Jordan. The SAG win matters more than people think, and I suspect voters want to reward *Sinners* somewhere meaningful even if it loses Best Picture.

**My prediction: Michael B. Jordan**

These Races? Already Over.

Some categories just aren't competitive anymore. Let me speed through them.

**Best Actress: Jessie Buckley.** She won the Golden Globes. Then the SAG. Then the BAFTA. Then the Critics Choice. At this point calling it a "prediction" feels generous — I'm just reporting news. She earned every single one of those trophies and I'm happy about it.

**Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson.** Won the DGA, which is basically the crystal ball for this category. Here's what kills me — this man made *There Will Be Blood* and *Phantom Thread* and walked away empty-handed both times. Long overdue doesn't even cover it. If he doesn't win Sunday I'll eat my laptop.

**Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn.** Took home both the BAFTA and the SAG. Penn's already got two Oscars on his shelf so the "overdue" angle doesn't apply here, but apparently his work in *One Battle After Another* is some of his best stuff in years. I'd love to see Delroy Lindo get recognition for *Sinners*, but Penn's the lock.

Supporting Actress Is Where Nobody Has a Clue

OK so this is the category I'm most excited about because genuinely nobody knows what's happening.

Teyana Taylor won the Golden Globes. Then Wunmi Mosaku took the BAFTA. Then Amy Madigan won the SAG Award. Three different precursors, three different winners. That almost never happens — and when it does, Oscar night becomes a genuine mystery.

The full nominee list is stacked: Elle Fanning, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Madigan, Mosaku, and Taylor. Any of them could hear their name on Sunday.

My completely unscientific, vibes-based take? I think Taylor pulls it out. The Golden Globes win set the narrative early and she's had the longest campaign runway. But honestly? I would not bet a single dollar on this one. This is the category where I'll be shocked no matter who wins — in the best possible way.

**My prediction: Teyana Taylor (very low confidence)**

Quick Thoughts on Animated Feature and Conan

*Zootopia 2* is the safe bet because Disney sequels just tend to win this category — the Academy has a well-documented Disney bias here. But I've been hearing amazing things about *Arco* and *KPop Demon Hunters*. My dark horse pick is *Little Amélie or the Character of Rain* — it's the kind of quiet, gorgeous film the Academy occasionally rewards when they're feeling artsy and want to prove they don't just hand it to Disney every year.

And honestly? Conan O'Brien hosting again might be the thing I'm most looking forward to on Sunday night. His first time hosting last year was the best Oscar ceremony in recent memory. He actually made it fun, which shouldn't be as hard as hosts consistently make it look. I'm fully expecting him to roast the *Sinners* vampire thing for at least three minutes straight.